Coalition transmission backflip puts Victoria's energy security at risk

Scrapping VNI West and pausing the Western Renewables Link would choke off the infrastructure needed to replace retiring coal generation that is on its last legs, restricting new electricity supply from entering the market just as demand rises making Victoria more vulnerable in an energy crisis.

The Liberal National Coalition today confirmed they would pursue the Victoria Energy Policy Centre's 'Plan B' proposal as an alternative to the Victorian Transmission Plan in an attempt to keep the lights on. But "Plan B" has already been independently assessed at VicGrid's request and found not to stack up technically or economically against the pathway Victoria is currently pursuing. 

That is the proposal the Nationals are now asking Victorians to bank their energy future on.

Victoria needs more electricity, not less of it. Rooftop solar will not replace the 1480 MW of capacity leaving the system when Yallourn closes, nor will it provide the firmed, dispatchable power heavy industry and manufacturers rely on. Victoria needs large-scale generation, and large-scale generation needs transmission to move electricity from where it is produced to where it is consumed. Halting VNI West and pausing the Western Renewables Link strands that pipeline.

The Nationals' policy puts thousands of regional construction and operational jobs at risk by 2035, around three quarters of them in regional Victoria, while stripping $3.9 billion in wages and $3.2 billion in local procurement from regional economies. Local councils would forgo an estimated $93 million in Payments in Lieu of Rates over the next nine years, while $213 million in landholder and community benefit payments would also be put at risk, including direct payments to host farmers and regional communities.

Quotes attributable to Jackie Trad, CEO, Clean Energy Council:

"Transmission is the same kind of infrastructure as a freeway or a railway. You move people around the state on roads. You move electricity around the state on poles and wires. There is no shortcut around that, and pretending there is leaves Victorians exposed every time a unit at Yallourn trips.

“Pausing these projects is not a plan to deal with Victoria’s growing energy needs. This announcement jeopardises jobs and small businesses in regional communities and jeopardises the energy security of the whole state.”

"Community concerns about how transmission is planned and how landholders are treated are legitimate, and they deserve to be handled properly. But halting critical infrastructure is a different conversation, and the bill for it arrives in every Victorian letterbox."

Background:

• VicGrid commissioned Jacobs Group to independently assess the 'Plan B' report published by the Victoria Energy Policy Centre in August 2023, authored by Dr Bruce Mountain. Jacobs concluded the report lacked the technical analysis needed to support its claims and did not stand up against industry-standard planning methodologies.
  Independent assessment of Plan B – Summary
  
• ‘Plan B’ was also assessed by AEMO which also found it to be deficient: AEMO responds to VNI West ‘alternative plan
  
• Western Renewables Link (WRL) is the proposed transmission line connecting Bulgana to Sydenham to unlock renewable energy from western Victoria’s key Renewable Energy Zones (REZs).
  
  
• VNI West is the new high-voltage interconnector linking Victoria and New South Wales. It is the backbone needed to move power from the western Victorian REZs into the grid and to share supply between the two states when generators fail.
  
  
• Yallourn, Victoria's second-largest coal generator at around 1480 MW, is scheduled to close in mid-2028, and has experienced repeated reliability issues in recent years. Built in the 1970s, the asset is nearly 50 years old and is at the end of its economic and design life.
  
  
• Victoria's six REZs: Central Highlands, Central North, Gippsland, North West, South West and Western, depend on new transmission projects including to bring large-scale wind and solar online creating large economic benefits in these regional areas.