CSIRO GenCost report reaffirms firmed renewables as most practical option for Australia's energy transition

The CSIRO’s latest GenCost report shows the average cost of electricity consistent with achieving 82 per cent renewables by 2030 is around $91 per megawatt hour including new transmission, or around $81 per megawatt hour for wholesale generation costs only.

Jackie Trad, CEO of the Clean Energy Council, said the figures demonstrate that Australia can replace retiring coal capacity while maintaining affordability and reliability for households and businesses.

“The GenCost report’s assessment of electricity costs at a whole-of-system level, rather than comparing individual technologies in isolation, finds renewables-led systems consistently outperform alternatives on cost,” Ms Trad said.

“The report confirms that building a new coal fired power station would deliver electricity for at least double the price of solar and wind. This is once again confirmation that the lowest-cost electricity system for Australia is built on renewable energy backed by storage and firming.

“This is about replacing old coal plants with the cheapest, most reliable combination of technologies available,” she said.

The GenCost report also shows that electricity costs in 2050 under this least-cost pathway are broadly in line with recent historical prices, even as demand grows and coal exits the system. 

Importantly, the modelling finds that adding higher-cost technologies such as nuclear, or carbon capture and storage increases average electricity costs compared to a renewables-first system with firming.

“Time and time again research continually shows that if Australia wants affordable power as coal retires, the answer is to build more renewables, invest in storage and firming, and keep the system flexible. Delaying the transition or forcing in higher-cost technologies will only push bills up,” Ms Trad said.

Indicative levelised generation costs ($/MWh) in the CSIRO’s 2025-26 GenCost Report (Consultation Draft):

• Solar PV: $52-$88
• Onshore Wind: $78-$129
• Gas: $135-$203
• Black coal: $121-$195 
• Black coal with CCS: $224-$354
• Nuclear (large-scale): $200-$328